Economic Insider

Arif Bhalwani, others say private debt will drive projected surge of $8 trillion in global alternatives market by 2028

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Despite a downturn in virtually all asset classes, the future for private debt appears to be bright, according to a new report.

The Future of Alternatives 2028 report by Preqin forecasts global alternatives assets under management (AUM) to reach $24.5tn by the end of 2028. This represents a growth rate of 8% over the five-year period from 2022 to 2028. By the end of 2023, the market as a whole will reach an estimated $16.3tn AUM.

North America’s share of that market is at $1.0tn, and it’s expected to hit $1.7tn in the next five years.

Despite some challenges for private debt markets this year, most investors remain satisfied with results. Preqin reports that 90% of investors believe that private debt met or exceeded their expectations. 

The private market industry has seen a huge expansion, with successes attributed to alternative asset classes such as private debt strategies. From 2016 to 2022, the industry’s internal rate of return (IRR) was 9.11%. By 2028, the IRR is forecast to reach 9.81%. The industry is currently valued at almost $13tn.

“The industry is expected to show solid growth until 2028, thanks to a gradual recovery in fundraising activity,” says Cameron Joyce, SVP at Preqin. “Softer investor sentiment is creating opportunities in direct lending, secondaries, and real assets in particular. The longer-term fundamentals behind the growth of the private markets remain broadly intact, while the market continues to evolve rapidly.” 

It’s clear that in the face of several macroeconomic challenges, the outlook for private debt remains stable. Arif Bhalwani, CEO of Third Eye Capital, an alternative capital provider in Toronto, foresees those challenges as creating new opportunities for the industry. 

“We are at the beginning of a multi-year cycle of reduced credit availability, higher cost of capital, and greater corporate stress and distress,” says Bhalwani. “These factors have historically benefited alternative lenders who are agile and experienced in financial and operational turnarounds.”

Bhalwani points out that mounting debt service among mid-size Canadian corporations due to higher interest rates and lower profitability will raise the risk of recession in Canada. A recent report by BIS confirms that Canadian companies spend close to 52 cents of every dollar on debt service.

Companies have maintained a relatively low default rate in the recent past, thanks in large part to easy access to financing,” says Daniel Maccarone, the co-head of Global Investment Manager Analysis at Morgan Stanley. “But pressure on the economy could weigh on businesses that are over-leveraged. We believe ‘distressed debt’ and ‘special situations’ investing strategies may be in a position to find value in these pockets of stress. The key for investors will be to find managers that target companies with unsustainable balance sheets but ultimately sound business models.”

The Preqin report states that “distressed debt performance” is forecast for the largest increase in growth rate, from 7% from 2016-22 to 14% from 2022-28. Other strategies within the private debt asset class are forecast for few changes in growth rates.

“Companies need problem solving in this market,” says Bhalwani. “Alternative capital providers with distressed investing experience can fill liquidity gaps without having to take on significantly more credit risk.”

 

Reimagining Financial Literacy: Unveiling the Unseen Influences on Your Financial Destiny by Cindy Couyoumjian, CFP®

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The Urgent Need for Financial Education

In an age where information abounds, and financial markets evolve at breakneck speed, financial literacy is not a luxury—it’s a necessity. Cindy Couyoumjian’s “Redefining Financial Literacy” highlights this imperative need. The book positions itself as a crucial tool in addressing the educational gap in our society concerning finance. In doing so, it serves as a timely intervention against the backdrop of a fast-paced digital economy. The challenge isn’t just to understand finances but to adapt and evolve with them.

Cindy Couyoumjian: A Beacon in Financial Empowerment

Cindy Couyoumjian, founder of Cinergy Financial, has an illustrious 37-year career in finance. Holding multiple FINRA series licenses, she’s a force to be reckoned with in the industry. Her innovations, such as the REALM investment portfolio, demonstrate her knack for crafting adaptable financial solutions. Beyond her financial acumen, Cindy is a passionate educator, delivering monthly lectures on topics like the “Google Mind” and the “Moral Imperative of Financial Literacy.”

She has written about the historical sidelining of women, emphasizing financial freedom as a catalyst for change. For those eager to dive deeper into Cindy’s insights, her website offers a wealth of information on her projects and lectures. In essence, Cindy embodies the blend of expertise and education, making her a standout figure in the financial world.

A Comprehensive Dive into Finance

What sets “Redefining Financial Literacy ” apart from other financial guide books is Couyoumjian’s deep dive into the intricacies of modern finance. She adopts an approach that is both beginner-friendly and rewarding for seasoned investors. Her narrative encompasses both the elementary and the intricate, making it a comprehensive guide. By bridging the gap between novice and expert content, the book invites a broad readership. This inclusivity underscores its pivotal role in enhancing financial literacy across the board.

Understanding the ‘Why’ Behind Financial Decisions

A key strength of this book is the way it centers on the ‘why’ as much as the ‘how.’ Couyoumjian extends beyond mere methodologies and delves into the rationale behind financial strategies. Her perspective offers readers a holistic view of the financial landscape, promoting deep understanding over superficial knowledge. With this approach, she not only imparts financial wisdom but also nurtures critical thinking in financial matters. It’s a push towards informed decision-making, urging readers to question and comprehend their financial choices.

Championing Proactive Financial Behavior

Furthermore, the book champions proactive financial behavior. Couyoumjian’s message is clear: be active, not passive, in your financial journey. Relying solely on trends or advisers can be detrimental; taking charge of your financial destiny is paramount. She reminds readers that in the realm of finance, fortune often favors the bold and informed. It’s a call to arms, encouraging individuals to be the master of their financial ship.

Ethics and Finance: An Inseparable Pair

It’s also worth noting the book’s commitment to ethical financial behavior. Couyoumjian intertwines financial success with ethical considerations, emphasizing the importance of sustainable and conscientious decision-making. This ethical lens ensures that readers consider the broader impacts of their financial decisions. In an age of heightened corporate scrutiny and consumer awareness, her emphasis on ethics is both commendable and necessary. Making money and maintaining moral integrity, she argues, are not mutually exclusive.

Potential Challenges for Readers

However, no review is complete without addressing potential areas of improvement. Some might find the breadth of content intimidating, given the book’s comprehensive nature. It’s essential for readers to approach this guide with the understanding that it offers an in-depth exploration rather than a quick financial fix. While its vastness is one of its strengths, it also necessitates dedicated reading and reflection. Newbies in finance, in particular, might need to pace themselves through the chapters to grasp the material fully.

Conclusion: A Testament to Modern Financial Literacy

In conclusion, “Redefining Financial Literacy” stands as a pillar in the realm of financial education. Cindy Couyoumjian’s expertise offers readers a roadmap to understanding today’s financial complexities. With commitment and dedication, readers can unlock a brighter, more informed financial future. This book is more than just a guide; it’s a beacon for those navigating the murky waters of modern finance. It champions the belief that with knowledge comes empowerment, and with empowerment comes financial success.

Venturing Beyond: Recommendations for Further Reading

For those inspired by “Redefining Financial Literacy” and keen to delve deeper into the world of finance, there’s a treasure trove of literature awaiting. “The Intelligent Investor” by Benjamin Graham offers timeless strategies for value investing and establishes foundational principles for anyone serious about the stock market. For an understanding of behavioral economics and its impact on financial decisions, “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman is an enlightening read. Those interested in the future of digital currency shouldn’t miss “The Age of Cryptocurrency” by Paul Vigna and Michael J. Casey, which dives into the transformative potential of blockchain and Bitcoin. Lastly, Robert Kiyosaki’s “Rich Dad Poor Dad” provides insights into personal finance and the mindset needed for financial independence. Each of these books complements Couyoumjian’s teachings and promises to enhance one’s financial acumen and perspective. As the journey of financial literacy is ongoing, it’s heartening to know that there are myriad resources available to guide, inform, and inspire.

Source: Couyoumjian. C CFP®., with R.F Georgy. (2021) Redefining Financial Literacy. Greenleaf Book Group Press.

Registered Representative offering securities and advisory services through Independent Financial Group LLC (IFG), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser. Member FINRA/SIPC. Cinergy Financial and IFG are unaffiliated entities. Content provided for information & education only. It is not meant to be a recommendation to buy or sell securities nor an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk; no strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. There is no guarantee that our investment strategies will be profitable.

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