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U.S. Manufacturing Expands as Factory Prices Surge

U.S. manufacturing remained in expansion territory in September, with the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI registering 54.5. The reading was nearly unchanged from August’s 54.6 and marked a ninth consecutive month of manufacturing-sector growth. Price pressures showed a much sharper move. The Prices Index climbed to 77.9 from 71.1 in August, while new orders and employment also strengthened during the month. Key Takeaways The U.S. Manufacturing PMI registered 54.5 in September, compared with 54.6 in August Manufacturing expanded for a ninth consecutive month The Prices Index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1 The New Orders Index increased to 55.3 from 53.7 The Employment Index rose to 52.7 from 51.2 U.S. Manufacturing PMI Remains in Expansion Territory The September reading kept the U.S. manufacturing sector in expansion territory, with the Manufacturing PMI registering 54.5. That was just 0.1 percentage point below the August reading of 54.6. A Manufacturing PMI above 50 generally indicates expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. September therefore marked a ninth consecutive month of manufacturing growth following a 10-month period of contraction. Several underlying measures also remained in expansion. New orders and employment strengthened from August, while production registered 56.7 despite declining from

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U.S.-China Tariff Cuts Establish New Trade Framework

U.S.-China Tariff Cuts Establish New Trade Framework

The United States and China agreed on recommendations for more favorable tariff treatment covering $30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction, while also expanding formal trade mechanisms. The arrangement covers selected U.S. agricultural and industrial exports and Chinese consumer products, with both governments establishing additional channels for trade discussions. Key Takeaways The U.S. and China reached recommendations for favorable tariff treatment covering $30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction. U.S. products covered include agricultural goods, fish and seafood, wood products, cosmetics and medical devices. Chinese products covered by the U.S. list include small appliances, toys, holiday decorations and children’s car seats. The U.S.-China Board of Trade launched a working group focused on agricultural market-access barriers. The two governments are using the Board of Trade to manage trade in non-sensitive products between the two economies. U.S.-China Tariff Cuts Cover About $30 Billion in Goods The United States and China reached recommendations on September 27 for more favorable tariff treatment covering $30 billion of non-sensitive goods on each side. The announcement followed Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington and the latest work of the U.S.-China Board of Trade. The arrangement is structured around goods that the two governments have

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Neel Kashkari Sees More Fed Rate Hikes Ahead Into 2027

Neel Kashkari Sees More Fed Rate Hikes Ahead Into 2027

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said he expects additional interest-rate increases may be needed into 2027, while remaining undecided about whether the central bank should raise rates at its October 27–28 meeting. Kashkari’s September projections included another quarter-percentage-point increase before the end of 2026 and an additional increase in 2027. He said stronger-than-expected economic activity and persistently elevated inflation could require monetary policy to remain tighter than he previously anticipated. Key Takeaways Kashkari’s September projections included another 25-basis-point rate increase in 2026 and one in 2027 He said he does not have a strong view on whether the next increase should occur at the October 27–28 meeting The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark target range to 3.75%–4.00% in September Kashkari said recent economic data had been stronger than he expected while inflation remained elevated He said financial markets were functioning properly but that the banking sector continued to warrant monitoring Kashkari Signals Additional Fed Rate Hikes Into 2027 Kashkari said his projections submitted at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting called for one additional 25-basis-point increase in 2026 and another increase of the same size in 2027. The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by a

U.S. Critical Minerals Strategy Faces Refining Gaps

U.S. Critical Minerals Strategy Faces Refining Gaps

U.S. efforts to strengthen critical-mineral supply chains have reduced China’s share of rare-earth refining, but China’s broader position in mineral processing remains strong. International Energy Agency data cited in a September 15 report showed China’s average share of non-rare-earth critical-mineral refining increased from 70% in 2023 to 72% in 2025.

U.S. Producer Prices Rise 5.4%, Raising Fed Rate Hike Bets

U.S. Producer Prices Rise 5.4%, Raising Fed Rate Hike Bets

U.S. producer inflation accelerated in August, with prices for final demand rising 0.4% from July and 5.4% over the previous 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the central bank’s September 15–16 meeting, placing greater attention

Anthropic AI Economy Model Maps GDP and Job Risk by 2030

Anthropic AI Economy Model Maps GDP and Job Risk by 2030

Anthropic AI Economy Model puts a sharp 2030 trade-off into view: U.S. output rises in every scenario the company modeled, while knowledge-worker pay and employment outcomes vary much more widely. The scenario explorer shows how GDP growth, job switching and wages can move in different directions as AI capability and

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U.S. Services Input Costs Reach Highest Level Since 2022

U.S. Services Input Costs Reach Highest Level Since 2022

U.S. services businesses reported a sharp increase in the prices they paid for inputs in August, with the Institute for Supply Management’s Services Prices Index reaching 72.6, its highest reading since August 2022. Services activity and new orders also strengthened, providing fresh data on business costs and inflation pressures. Key

Higher Rates Increase Pressure on U.S. Federal Debt Costs

Higher Rates Increase Pressure on U.S. Federal Debt Costs

U.S. Treasury borrowing costs are rising as federal debt and deficits remain elevated, with interest payments reaching about 3% of GDP. The development has increased attention on the relationship between higher interest rates, the annual budget deficit and the cost of servicing publicly held U.S. government debt. Key Takeaways The

U.S. Household Debt Falls to $18.8 Trillion in Q2

U.S. Household Debt Falls to $18.8 Trillion in Q2

U.S. household debt stood at $18.8 trillion in the second quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Mortgage balances declined, while auto loans, credit card balances and home-equity lines increased, providing a detailed snapshot of borrowing across major categories of consumer credit. Key Takeaways U.S. household debt

Global Food Price Risks Could Intensify by Year-End, UN Agencies Warn

Global Food Price Risks Could Intensify by Year-End, UN Agencies Warn

The latest global food price data shows a stable headline index but growing pressure beneath it. United Nations agencies, the World Bank and U.S. officials are tracking higher fertilizer, energy and category-specific food costs that could affect markets through year-end. Readers will learn which risks matter most and how they

U.S. Manufacturing Activity Reaches Four-Year High in July

U.S. Manufacturing Activity Reaches Four-Year High in July

U.S. manufacturing activity reached its highest level in more than four years in July, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Stronger factory orders and hiring supported the expansion, while elevated input costs and supply-chain disruptions continued to influence inflation and production conditions. Key Takeaways U.S. manufacturing activity rose to

Wall Street Rotates Ahead of Big Tech Earnings and Fed Meeting

Wall Street Rotates Ahead of Big Tech Earnings and Fed Meeting

Investors adjusted their market positions ahead of quarterly earnings reports from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. The combination of corporate earnings and monetary policy expectations is influencing equity markets, interest rate outlooks, and sector performance across Wall Street. Key Takeaways Investors shifted