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A new economic analysis reports that recent U.S. productivity growth has been driven primarily by greater utilization of existing capital rather than widespread artificial intelligence adoption. The findings provide new context for assessing economic output, business investment, and long-term growth. Key Takeaways New analysis attributes recent U.S. productivity gains mainly to higher capital utilization. Labor productivity has outpaced its long-term average in the latest data. Total factor productivity has remained relatively unchanged. Industries with stronger AI adoption showed productivity advantages before widespread use of large language models. The findings distinguish economy-wide productivity gains from firm-level AI efficiency improvements. A new economic analysis indicates that U.S. productivity growth has recently been supported more by increased use of existing capital than by broad adoption of artificial intelligence across the economy. The assessment, prepared by Stripe Chief Economist Ernie Tedeschi, examines the factors behind stronger labor productivity and concludes that higher utilization of factories, computing infrastructure, and other productive assets has played the leading role in recent gains. The findings arrive as economists, policymakers, and business leaders continue evaluating the sources of stronger economic output. Productivity growth is a closely watched measure because it influences long-term economic expansion, business profitability, wage potential, and
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U.S. Critical Minerals Supply Chain Faces a Major 2027 Deadline
U.S. critical minerals are nearing a January 1, 2027, procurement deadline that expands defense sourcing restrictions across the supply chain for certain magnets, tantalum, and tungsten. Contractors and lower-tier suppliers face new tracing and qualification demands while domestic capacity remains limited. This report explains the rule, the supply gap, and the compliance work now required. Key Takeaways The January 1, 2027, rule reaches covered materials mined, refined, separated, melted, or produced in China, Iran, North Korea, or Russia. Covered materials include two rare earth magnet types, tantalum metals and alloys, tungsten metal powder, and tungsten heavy alloy. Reuters reported 2025 U.S. demand of about 48,000 metric tons for the most common rare earth magnet, compared with 300 metric tons from domestic sources. A July 20, 2026, executive order tightened waiver conditions and directed broader supply chain mapping. The deadline changes the depth of the restriction rather than creating a broad ban on every mineral or commercial product. Under the Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement, covered contractors may not deliver specified materials or end items containing them when prohibited production stages occurred in a covered country. Beginning January 1, the restriction reaches mining, refining, separation, melting, and production. For samarium-cobalt and
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Wall Street Rotates Ahead of Big Tech Earnings and Fed Meeting
Investors adjusted their market positions ahead of quarterly earnings reports from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. The combination of corporate earnings and monetary policy expectations is influencing equity markets, interest rate outlooks, and sector performance across Wall Street. Key Takeaways Investors shifted portfolio allocations before major technology companies released quarterly earnings. Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta are scheduled to report financial results during a closely watched earnings week. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision remains a central focus for financial markets. Interest rate expectations continue to influence equity valuations and sector performance. Market participants are also monitoring upcoming inflation data for additional policy signals. Wall Street rotates ahead of big tech earnings and Fed Meeting as investors repositioned portfolios before a pivotal week featuring quarterly results from several of the largest U.S. technology companies and the Federal Reserve’s July monetary policy decision. The combination of corporate earnings, interest rate expectations, and upcoming economic data has become the primary focus for investors assessing the near-term outlook for U.S. financial markets. Trading reflected a cautious approach as investors evaluated whether earnings from leading technology companies would support current equity valuations while considering the potential
U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since 1969
U.S. jobless claims fell to 187,000 in the week ending July 18, the lowest reading since September 1969,
Economists See Higher Odds of Fed Rate Hike in 2026
Economists surveyed on Fed rate hike expectations increasingly believe the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase
Dollar Falls as June Producer Prices Drop 0.3%
The U.S. dollar weakened after producer prices unexpectedly fell in June, giving investors further evidence that inflation pressures may be easing. The report reduced expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate increase, although renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and higher oil prices continued to complicate the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.
Fed Communication Strategy Review Draws IMF Engagement
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it looks forward to engaging with the U.S. Federal Reserve as the central bank reviews its Fed communication strategy and forward guidance framework. The review is significant because communication plays a central role in how financial markets interpret monetary policy decisions and future interest
Fed Inflation Outlook Improves as Williams Cites Lower Energy Prices
New York Fed President John Williams said lower energy prices have made him more optimistic about the Fed inflation outlook while reaffirming the Federal Reserve’s commitment to restoring price stability. His remarks offer investors updated insight into the central bank’s assessment of inflation and monetary policy. Key Takeaways John Williams
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Fed’s Goolsbee Cites Inflation Challenges Despite Stable Jobs
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said inflation challenges remain a concern for policymakers after recent economic data suggested price pressures are not easing as expected, even while labor market conditions continue to show stability. Speaking on June 22, Goolsbee stated that inflation is moving in the wrong direction, signaling
Wells Fargo Lifts S&P 500 Year-End Forecast for 2026
Wells Fargo S&P 500 forecast expectations moved higher this week after the bank revised its outlook for U.S. equities, citing stronger projections for corporate earnings through the remainder of 2026. The updated estimate raises the firm’s year-end target for the benchmark stock index and reflects changes in its assessment of
UBS Now Expects Federal Reserve to Hold Rates Through 2026
Federal Reserve to hold rates through 2026 is now the outlook presented by UBS after the financial institution revised its expectations for U.S. monetary policy and removed its forecast for interest rate cuts this year. The updated projection was released ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting and reflects
ECB Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in June Decision
The ECB raises interest rates following a policy meeting held on June 11, with the European Central Bank announcing a 25-basis-point increase to its key rates as policymakers assessed inflation developments and economic conditions across the euro area. The decision was adopted by the ECB Governing Council, which is responsible
U.S. Tariff Increase Leads to Drop in EU Steel Exports
U.S. tariff increase has been linked to a significant reduction in European steel shipments to the American market, with industry association Eurofer reporting that export volumes fell 34% after import duties on steel and aluminum were raised to 50%. The decline affected producers across the European Union and comes as
Microsoft Unveils Majorana 2 Quantum Chip With 1000x Reliability
Microsoft introduced its next‑generation quantum computing chip, Majorana 2, at its annual Build conference, unveiling a platform the company says offers qubit reliability improvements unprecedented in its own development efforts and reporting an adjusted timeline for larger quantum systems. The announcement, delivered during a keynote and a series of technical
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Wall Street AI Models Turn War Risk Into Market Signals
Wall Street is increasingly exploring war-risk modeling as part of broader market-risk toolkits, as financial firms look for earlier signals on events that may affect
