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Federal Reserve researchers have found that U.S. tariff exposure was associated with weaker export performance in affected industries across Canada and Mexico. Their November 9 analysis also identified contrasting national export results, with Canadian shipments declining while Mexican exports increased, largely because of stronger machinery shipments. Key Takeaways Federal Reserve researchers published their analysis on November 9, 2026. Canadian goods exports to the United States declined approximately 10%, while Mexican exports increased approximately 16%. A 10-percentage-point difference in tariff exposure was associated with approximately 4.9% weaker exports in Canada and 11.8% weaker exports in Mexico. Mexico’s export growth was concentrated in machinery shipments, particularly computing equipment. Excluding machinery, Mexican exports declined approximately 2%. Federal Reserve Research Examines U.S. Tariffs and North American Exports Federal Reserve researchers found that industries facing greater exposure to U.S. tariffs recorded weaker export performance in Canada and Mexico, despite different overall trade results between the two countries. Their November 9, 2026, analysis examined export activity following the 2025 tariff increases and compared differences in tariff exposure across industries. The research, titled A Common Pattern behind Diverging Fortunes: U.S. Tariffs and Exports from Canada and Mexico, assessed how tariff exposure corresponded with export performance. It distinguished
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Rising Oil Shipping Costs Favor U.S. Gulf Coast Refiners
Rising oil shipping costs are giving some U.S. Gulf Coast refiners access to discounted heavy crude while overseas competitors face more expensive tanker voyages. Company earnings and federal energy data reveal why the advantage is uneven and what it means for fuel buyers. Valero Energy put a number on the freight disruption during its October 22 earnings call. Shipping crude from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia was costing approximately $30 to $35 per barrel, compared with an average of roughly $5 in 2025, according to the company. “The main story right now in the market is freight rates,” said Randy Hawkins, Valero’s vice president of crude and feedstocks supply and trading. The transport gap affects which crude grades refineries can purchase economically. Key Takeaways Valero estimated Gulf Coast-to-Asia crude freight at $30 to $35 per barrel in October, up from about $5 on average in 2025 The International Energy Agency placed Middle East-to-Asia crude shipping above $37 per barrel by mid-October Valero’s Gulf Coast refining margin reached $6.47 billion in the third quarter, compared with $2.07 billion a year earlier Federal Reserve research found gasoline refining spreads at more than twice their year-earlier level and diesel spreads at more
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U.S. Wholesale Inventories Increase 0.7%
U.S. wholesale inventories increased 0.7% in September 2026 to $1.013 trillion, while wholesale sales rose 2.8% to $840.1 billion, according to data released by the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau on November 9. Sales grew faster than inventory holdings, lowering the inventories-to-sales ratio to 1.21 months from 1.23 in August. The figures provide updated information about merchandise distribution, business demand and inventory activity. Key Takeaways U.S. wholesale inventories increased 0.7% in September 2026, following a revised 0.6% rise in August Wholesale sales advanced 2.8%, accelerating from August’s 2.0% increase The inventories-to-sales ratio declined to 1.21 months from 1.23 months Durable-goods inventories rose 0.6%, while electrical-goods inventories increased 2.5% Private inventory investment contributed 1.61 percentage points to third-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 3.4% September Wholesale Inventories Reach $1.013 Trillion U.S. wholesale inventories increased 0.7% in September 2026, reaching approximately $1.013 trillion, according to the Census Bureau’s Monthly Wholesale Trade report. The increase followed a revised 0.6% gain in August and exceeded the preliminary September estimate of 0.6%. Compared with September 2025, wholesale inventories increased 7.6%. The figures are adjusted for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but do not account for price changes. Wholesale inventories measure the value of merchandise held by distributors
How the 2026 Midterm Elections Could Shift U.S. Market Rules
With voting underway on November 3, the 2026 midterm elections will determine which lawmakers oversee disputes involving tariffs,
US Savings Rate Falls to 3.8% as Consumer Spending Outpaces Income
The US savings rate declined to 3.8% in September 2026 as consumer spending grew faster than personal income,
Oil Prices Near $100 Put U.S. Inflation and Business Costs in Focus
Oil prices remained elevated, even as crude futures declined during the trading session. With U.S. oil trading just above $100 per barrel and the international benchmark above $115, businesses face continued pressure from fuel, freight and production expenses. Whether those costs lead to broader inflation depends on how long oil
U.S. Wind Turbine Trade Review Targets Import Supply Chains
U.S. trade officials have been directed to negotiate with foreign trading partners over wind turbine imports following a national security review. The directive establishes a 180-day reporting deadline for the negotiations but does not immediately impose tariffs or other import restrictions, leaving the scope of any subsequent trade measures undetermined.
IMF Identifies Financial Stability Risks Across Global Markets
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) identified vulnerabilities in sovereign debt markets, nonbank financial institutions and AI-related asset valuations in its October 2026 Global Financial Stability Report. The assessment examines risks that could amplify market disruptions, affect financial institutions and constrain governments’ capacity to respond to future economic shocks. Key Takeaways
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U.S. Services Growth Slows as Price Pressures Increase
U.S. services activity continued to expand in September, although the pace of growth moderated as businesses reported stronger input-price pressures. The Institute for Supply Management’s services survey showed continued expansion alongside a rise in its prices index, providing another measure of business costs and the broader inflation environment. Key Takeaways
Neel Kashkari Sees More Fed Rate Hikes Ahead Into 2027
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said he expects additional interest-rate increases may be needed into 2027, while remaining undecided about whether the central bank should raise rates at its October 27–28 meeting. Kashkari’s September projections included another quarter-percentage-point increase before the end of 2026 and an additional increase in
Bank of America Adds AI Analytics to Corporate Treasury
Bank of America has introduced Payments Insights, an AI-powered feature for corporate treasury teams using its CashPro platform. The tool analyzes payment activity, cross-border transactions and working-capital performance, giving businesses data-based insights into financial operations and payment efficiency through the bank’s corporate banking technology. Key Takeaways Bank of America launched
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U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to 197,000 in Latest Report
U.S. jobless claims fell to 197,000 for the week ending September 19, according to the Labor Department, marking the lowest level since mid-July. The decline came as layoffs remained limited, providing a fresh reading on labor-market conditions ahead of the next monthly employment report. Key Takeaways Initial unemployment claims fell
U.S. Critical Minerals Strategy Faces Refining Gaps
U.S. efforts to strengthen critical-mineral supply chains have reduced China’s share of rare-earth refining, but China’s broader position in mineral processing remains strong. International Energy Agency data cited in a September 15 report showed China’s average share of non-rare-earth critical-mineral refining increased from 70% in 2023 to 72% in 2025.
U.S. Producer Prices Rise 5.4%, Raising Fed Rate Hike Bets
U.S. producer inflation accelerated in August, with prices for final demand rising 0.4% from July and 5.4% over the previous 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the central bank’s September 15–16 meeting, placing greater attention
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Alaska LNG Project Tests U.S. Energy Infrastructure Economics
Glenfarne says the proposed Alaska LNG project could reduce shipping costs to Asian markets by at least 65% compared with Gulf Coast LNG routes. The
