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Rising oil shipping costs are giving some U.S. Gulf Coast refiners access to discounted heavy crude while overseas competitors face more expensive tanker voyages. Company earnings and federal energy data reveal why the advantage is uneven and what it means for fuel buyers. Valero Energy put a number on the freight disruption during its October 22 earnings call. Shipping crude from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia was costing approximately $30 to $35 per barrel, compared with an average of roughly $5 in 2025, according to the company. “The main story right now in the market is freight rates,” said Randy Hawkins, Valero’s vice president of crude and feedstocks supply and trading. The transport gap affects which crude grades refineries can purchase economically. Key Takeaways Valero estimated Gulf Coast-to-Asia crude freight at $30 to $35 per barrel in October, up from about $5 on average in 2025 The International Energy Agency placed Middle East-to-Asia crude shipping above $37 per barrel by mid-October Valero’s Gulf Coast refining margin reached $6.47 billion in the third quarter, compared with $2.07 billion a year earlier Federal Reserve research found gasoline refining spreads at more than twice their year-earlier level and diesel spreads at more
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U.S. Services Sector Growth Continues Despite High Input Prices
U.S. services-sector activity continued expanding in October 2026, although business activity and new orders moderated while input prices remained elevated. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered 54.5%, down from 54.9% in September. The November 4 report also showed slower supplier deliveries and a modest improvement in employment conditions, reflecting a combination of continued economic activity and operating cost pressures. Key Takeaways The ISM Services PMI registered 54.5% in October, down from 54.9% in September The Business Activity Index declined to 53.8%, while the New Orders Index fell to 55.9% The Prices Index reached 73%, remaining above 70 for the seventh time in eight months The Supplier Deliveries Index increased to 56.7%, indicating slower delivery performance The Employment Index rose to 51.4%, marking a second consecutive month of expansion U.S. Services Sector Maintains Expansion in October The U.S. services sector expanded for the 28th consecutive month in October, according to ISM’s latest survey of purchasing and supply executives. The headline Services PMI registered 54.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from September’s reading of 54.9%. A Services PMI above 50% indicates that the sector is generally expanding, while a reading below 50%
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How the 2026 Midterm Elections Could Shift U.S. Market Rules
With voting underway on November 3, the 2026 midterm elections will determine which lawmakers oversee disputes involving tariffs, crypto regulation and banking requirements. A failed Senate vote, a Supreme Court ruling and recent federal rule proposals have already defined parts of the debate. For U.S. businesses, the distinction is between policy changes under consideration and obligations already in force. Key Takeaways All 435 House seats and 35 Senate contests, including two special elections, are on the November 3 ballot The Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in a 49–50 procedural vote on September 15 A February 20 Supreme Court decision held that a federal emergency-powers law does not authorize tariffs Federal agencies proposed revised bank capital requirements in March, while updated merger reporting thresholds took effect in February The results could alter congressional leadership, committee priorities and the scrutiny federal regulators receive. They will not, by themselves, change a tariff, finalize a banking rule or determine whether a merger proceeds. For importers, financial firms and public companies, that distinction matters for compliance decisions. The next Congress begins in January 2027, while several regulatory processes are already moving on schedules set by the agencies responsible for them.
US Savings Rate Falls to 3.8% as Consumer Spending Outpaces Income
The US savings rate declined to 3.8% in September 2026 as consumer spending grew faster than personal income,
Oil Prices Near $100 Put U.S. Inflation and Business Costs in Focus
Oil prices remained elevated, even as crude futures declined during the trading session. With U.S. oil trading just
U.S. Wind Turbine Trade Review Targets Import Supply Chains
U.S. trade officials have been directed to negotiate with foreign trading partners over wind turbine imports following a national security review. The directive establishes a 180-day reporting deadline for the negotiations but does not immediately impose tariffs or other import restrictions, leaving the scope of any subsequent trade measures undetermined.
IMF Identifies Financial Stability Risks Across Global Markets
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) identified vulnerabilities in sovereign debt markets, nonbank financial institutions and AI-related asset valuations in its October 2026 Global Financial Stability Report. The assessment examines risks that could amplify market disruptions, affect financial institutions and constrain governments’ capacity to respond to future economic shocks. Key Takeaways
U.S. Services Growth Slows as Price Pressures Increase
U.S. services activity continued to expand in September, although the pace of growth moderated as businesses reported stronger input-price pressures. The Institute for Supply Management’s services survey showed continued expansion alongside a rise in its prices index, providing another measure of business costs and the broader inflation environment. Key Takeaways
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Neel Kashkari Sees More Fed Rate Hikes Ahead Into 2027
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said he expects additional interest-rate increases may be needed into 2027, while remaining undecided about whether the central bank should raise rates at its October 27–28 meeting. Kashkari’s September projections included another quarter-percentage-point increase before the end of 2026 and an additional increase in
Bank of America Adds AI Analytics to Corporate Treasury
Bank of America has introduced Payments Insights, an AI-powered feature for corporate treasury teams using its CashPro platform. The tool analyzes payment activity, cross-border transactions and working-capital performance, giving businesses data-based insights into financial operations and payment efficiency through the bank’s corporate banking technology. Key Takeaways Bank of America launched
U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to 197,000 in Latest Report
U.S. jobless claims fell to 197,000 for the week ending September 19, according to the Labor Department, marking the lowest level since mid-July. The decline came as layoffs remained limited, providing a fresh reading on labor-market conditions ahead of the next monthly employment report. Key Takeaways Initial unemployment claims fell
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U.S. Critical Minerals Strategy Faces Refining Gaps
U.S. efforts to strengthen critical-mineral supply chains have reduced China’s share of rare-earth refining, but China’s broader position in mineral processing remains strong. International Energy Agency data cited in a September 15 report showed China’s average share of non-rare-earth critical-mineral refining increased from 70% in 2023 to 72% in 2025.
U.S. Producer Prices Rise 5.4%, Raising Fed Rate Hike Bets
U.S. producer inflation accelerated in August, with prices for final demand rising 0.4% from July and 5.4% over the previous 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the central bank’s September 15–16 meeting, placing greater attention
Anthropic AI Economy Model Maps GDP and Job Risk by 2030
Anthropic AI Economy Model puts a sharp 2030 trade-off into view: U.S. output rises in every scenario the company modeled, while knowledge-worker pay and employment outcomes vary much more widely. The scenario explorer shows how GDP growth, job switching and wages can move in different directions as AI capability and
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U.S. Manufacturing Expands as Factory Prices Surge
U.S. manufacturing remained in expansion territory in September, with the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI registering 54.5. The reading was nearly unchanged from August’s
