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Economic Insider

How Dr. Connor Robertson Builds an SOP Library That Actually Gets Used

Most SOP libraries fail not because they are poorly written but because nobody uses them, according to Dr. Connor Robertson, founder of Elixir Consulting Group and host of The Prospecting Show. In his assessment, they live in a folder nobody remembers to open, written in a format nobody enjoys reading, and stop being accurate the moment the underlying process changes. Robertson argues AI can address all three failure points at once.

Why Traditional SOP Libraries Fail

The typical SOP document, in Robertson’s account, is written once by one person, stored somewhere most of the team has never navigated, and never updated after the initial version. When a process evolves, the document does not, and when a new team member needs guidance, they have to know the SOP exists, know where it lives, and know what to search for, three assumptions he says rarely hold in a real business.

Step 1: Capture the Process Before Documenting It

Before writing a good SOP, Robertson recommends getting an accurate picture of how the process actually works today, and points to a screen recording with narration as the most effective method: walking through the process while explaining what is happening and why, recording a five-minute video, then transcribing it. That transcript, in his framing, is the raw material an AI tool needs to produce a structured, readable document.

Step 2: Use AI to Draft With Structure

Robertson’s approach is to feed a raw transcript or rough notes to Claude with a specific prompt: produce a structured SOP with a purpose statement, prerequisites, numbered step-by-step instructions, a common mistakes section, and a troubleshooting guide. He estimates the first draft will be roughly 80 percent usable, with the remaining review work adding the business-specific knowledge only a person on the team would have.

Step 3: Make It Searchable in Natural Language

An SOP library that requires browsing folder hierarchies will not get used, in Robertson’s view. He points to Notion AI as a way for team members to type questions in plain English and receive relevant SOP sections as answers, so a person can get the relevant procedure without needing to know the SOP exists or what it is called.

Step 4: Build the Update Mechanism Into the Process

Every SOP needs a defined review owner and a defined review trigger: quarterly for stable processes, monthly for anything that changes frequently, and after any process change. When a process changes, he recommends feeding the current SOP and a plain-language description of the change to AI and requesting an updated version, describing the revised document as ready for review within minutes.

Treating Documentation as a Living Asset, Not a One-Time Project

Robertson’s broader point is that most SOP libraries fail at the maintenance stage, not the creation stage. Writing the first version is rarely the hard part. What breaks the system is the absence of a mechanism that makes updating a document as easy as writing it was in the first place. By lowering the cost of an update to a few minutes ofAI assisted editing, he argues a business removes the main reason documentation quietly goes stale: not laziness, but the simple fact that updating used to take almost as long as writing from scratch, so it kept losing to whatever felt more urgent that day.

About Dr. Connor Robertson

Dr. Connor Robertson is an entrepreneur, author, and strategic advisor based in Pittsburgh. He is the founder of Elixir Consulting Group, host of The Prospecting Show, publisher of The Pittsburgh Wire, and founder of The Grant Finder. He is also a six-time published author, with titles including Built to Run, available at

drconnorrobertsonbooks.com. More on his work is available at drconnorrobertson.com.

Economists See Higher Odds of Fed Rate Hike in 2026

Economists surveyed on Fed rate hike expectations increasingly believe the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase has risen even as most continue to expect policymakers to leave borrowing costs unchanged through the remainder of 2026. Persistent inflation above the central bank’s target and shifting market expectations have kept monetary policy in focus for investors, businesses and consumers.

Key Takeaways

  • Most economists continue to expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged through the rest of 2026.
  • A majority of surveyed economists now view the possibility of a rate hike this year as high.
  • Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target despite easing from earlier levels.
  • Financial markets have adjusted expectations for future interest rate increases.
  • Inflation, employment and economic growth remain central to future monetary policy decisions.

The latest survey of economists indicates that expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy have become more cautious as inflation continues to exceed the central bank’s long-term objective. While the consensus outlook still points to no change in benchmark interest rates for the remainder of 2026, more economists now believe the probability of a rate increase has grown compared with previous assessments.

The shift reflects concerns that inflation could remain more persistent than anticipated despite recent signs of moderation. Higher energy prices have also contributed to renewed attention on inflation risks, prompting financial markets to reassess expectations for future monetary policy. Recent movements in the Treasury market mirror themes discussed in dollar strength and bond yields as investors continue evaluating inflation risks and borrowing costs. 

Federal Reserve Rate Outlook Remains Unchanged

Most economists surveyed continue to expect the Federal Reserve to maintain its benchmark interest rate within the current target range through the rest of 2026. The prevailing view suggests policymakers will continue monitoring incoming economic data before considering any adjustment to monetary policy.

The expectation of unchanged rates reflects the Federal Reserve’s ongoing effort to balance inflation control with stable economic activity. Although inflation has eased from earlier peaks, it remains above the central bank’s stated 2% objective.

Policymakers have continued emphasizing that future decisions will depend on economic data rather than a predetermined schedule. Inflation readings, employment conditions and broader measures of economic growth remain key factors influencing policy discussions.

Market participants have also continued monitoring communications from Federal Reserve officials for additional guidance regarding the timing and direction of future policy decisions, including recent assessments of Federal Reserve inflation policy that reiterated a data-dependent approach.

Economists Increase Expectations for a Rate Hike

Poll Results

Although economists broadly expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, the latest survey found that a majority now considers the likelihood of a rate hike to be high.

The change represents a notable shift from the previous month’s survey, when most respondents viewed the probability of an increase as low. While expectations for unchanged rates remain the consensus forecast, confidence in that outlook has weakened as inflation risks continue to persist.

The survey also found that economists expecting policy changes are now more likely to anticipate an interest rate increase rather than a rate reduction.

The revised outlook reflects continued uncertainty surrounding the pace of inflation and the Federal Reserve’s efforts to return price growth to its long-term target.

Inflation Continues to Shape Monetary Policy

Inflation and Labor Market Outlook

Inflation remains the primary factor influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations. The central bank’s preferred inflation measure continues to run above its 2% objective, reinforcing the importance of maintaining restrictive monetary policy if price pressures do not ease further.

Higher energy prices have added to inflation concerns after recent increases in oil prices raised the possibility that progress toward lower inflation could slow.

At the same time, economists continue to expect relatively stable labor market conditions. Forecasts indicate unemployment will remain near recent levels while economic growth is projected to continue at a moderate pace.

The combination of above-target inflation, stable employment and continued economic expansion suggests policymakers are unlikely to face immediate pressure to lower interest rates based solely on weakening economic activity.

Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly stated that inflation remains their primary policy objective, with future decisions depending on whether incoming economic data demonstrate sustained progress toward price stability. Similar concerns were reflected in analysis of strong jobs and rate expectations, where resilient employment data reinforced expectations for restrictive policy. 

Financial Markets Adjust Interest Rate Expectations

Market Pricing for Future Rates

Financial markets have adjusted expectations following renewed concerns about inflation. Investors have increasingly priced in the possibility that interest rates could remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated.

Changes in interest rate expectations influence multiple asset classes, including government bonds, equities and corporate debt markets. Higher expected borrowing costs generally affect financing conditions for businesses while also influencing consumer lending rates.

Market pricing has reflected expectations that monetary policy could remain restrictive if inflation fails to continue moderating. These adjustments illustrate how investors respond not only to current Federal Reserve decisions but also to changing expectations about future policy.

Treasury yields have remained an important indicator as investors evaluate the potential path of monetary policy. Movements in bond markets often influence borrowing costs across the broader economy, including mortgages, business loans and other forms of credit.

The latest survey results have reinforced the importance of monitoring both economic data releases and Federal Reserve communications as markets continue reassessing policy expectations.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged?

Most economists believe current interest rates remain sufficiently restrictive while policymakers continue evaluating inflation, employment and economic growth before making further adjustments.

What changed in economists’ expectations for a Fed rate hike?

The latest survey found that a majority of respondents now considers the likelihood of a rate increase to be high, representing a shift from the previous survey in which most viewed that possibility as low.

How does inflation influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions?

Inflation is the Federal Reserve’s primary policy consideration. Persistent inflation above the 2% target can support maintaining higher interest rates or, if necessary, additional policy tightening.

What economic indicators are shaping the Fed’s policy outlook?

Federal Reserve policymakers continue monitoring inflation, employment conditions, economic growth and other economic data when evaluating future interest rate decisions.