U.S. Manufacturing Expands as Factory Prices Surge

Economic Insider Staff 2 on October 2, 2026

U.S. manufacturing remained in expansion territory in September, with the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI registering 54.5. The reading was nearly unchanged from August’s 54.6 and marked a ninth consecutive month of manufacturing-sector growth.

Price pressures showed a much sharper move. The Prices Index climbed to 77.9 from 71.1 in August, while new orders and employment also strengthened during the month.

Key Takeaways

The U.S. Manufacturing PMI registered 54.5 in September, compared with 54.6 in August
Manufacturing expanded for a ninth consecutive month
The Prices Index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1
The New Orders Index increased to 55.3 from 53.7
The Employment Index rose to 52.7 from 51.2

U.S. Manufacturing PMI Remains in Expansion Territory

The September reading kept the U.S. manufacturing sector in expansion territory, with the Manufacturing PMI registering 54.5. That was just 0.1 percentage point below the August reading of 54.6.

A Manufacturing PMI above 50 generally indicates expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. September therefore marked a ninth consecutive month of manufacturing growth following a 10-month period of contraction.

Several underlying measures also remained in expansion. New orders and employment strengthened from August, while production registered 56.7 despite declining from the previous month’s 58.3.

The results continue a broader period of factory growth visible in other manufacturing surveys. Earlier data on factory output and employment showed production and orders strengthening in June even as employment conditions weakened at the time.

September’s headline PMI changed little from August, but the composition of the report shifted. Inventories moved into contraction, while new orders, employment and backlogs strengthened and input-price pressures accelerated.

Factory Prices Index Rises Sharply in September

The ISM Prices Index increased to 77.9 in September from 71.1 in August, a 6.8-point jump. The index measures whether manufacturers are reporting higher or lower prices for raw materials and other inputs.

September marked the 24th consecutive month in which the Prices Index indicated rising raw-material costs. The increase was also considerably larger than the movement in the headline Manufacturing PMI, which slipped by only 0.1 point.

ISM reported that 58.6% of respondents experienced higher prices in September, compared with 46.2% in August. Only 2.8% reported lower prices.

Steel, aluminum, copper, fuel, electronic components, semiconductors and other materials were among the commodities reported as increasing in price during the month. ISM also identified tariffs and higher petroleum-related costs as factors contributing to price conditions.

The manufacturing price measure is separate from broader producer and consumer inflation indexes, but recent August producer-price data also showed higher prices across final demand and several intermediate stages of production.

For manufacturers, higher input costs can influence procurement decisions, production expenses and pricing calculations. The ISM index measures the direction and breadth of those changes rather than the exact percentage increase in manufacturers’ costs.

New Orders Strengthen Across the Manufacturing Sector

The New Orders Index increased to 55.3 in September from 53.7 in August, remaining above the 50 threshold associated with expansion.

The August reading had fallen from 56.7 in July, meaning September’s 1.6-point increase recovered part of the previous month’s decline.

Among the six largest manufacturing industries tracked by ISM, five reported higher new orders: Computer & Electronic Products, Chemical Products, Transportation Equipment, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products, and Machinery.

Backlogs also strengthened. The Backlog of Orders Index rose to 56.4 from 51.8 in August, a 4.6-point increase that indicated a faster expansion in orders received but not yet completed.

Production remained firmly in expansion territory at 56.7, although the index fell 1.6 points from August’s 58.3.

Together, the new-orders and production readings showed continued factory demand and output growth even as manufacturers faced higher input prices.

Factory Employment Moves Further Into Expansion

The ISM Employment Index increased to 52.7 in September from 51.2 in August, moving further into expansion territory.

August’s employment reading had declined from 52.8 in July. September’s 1.5-point increase therefore returned the index close to its July level.

Eight of the 18 manufacturing industries tracked by ISM reported employment growth during September. These included Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products.

ISM also reported that comments from survey participants showed a 1.5-to-1 ratio of hiring activity to managing or reducing headcounts.

The employment measure is one of five seasonally adjusted indexes used directly in calculating the Manufacturing PMI, along with New Orders, Production, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

The index reflects responses from manufacturing purchasing and supply executives about employment conditions within their organizations. It provides a sector-specific signal and is separate from the federal government’s broader payroll and employment statistics.

September Report Shows Growth Alongside Higher Costs

September’s manufacturing report combined continued expansion with considerably stronger input-price pressure.

The Manufacturing PMI registered 54.5, New Orders increased to 55.3 and Employment reached 52.7. Production remained in expansion at 56.7, while the Backlog of Orders Index climbed to 56.4.

The Prices Index produced one of the report’s largest monthly changes, rising 6.8 points to 77.9. By comparison, the headline Manufacturing PMI moved only 0.1 point lower.

Inventories were one area of contraction. The Inventories Index fell to 48.6 from 50.6 in August, moving below the 50 threshold after three months of expansion.

Supplier deliveries remained in slowing territory at 59.0, slightly below August’s 59.3. New export orders also remained in expansion at 50.9, although the measure declined from 53.2.

The broader picture was therefore one of continued manufacturing growth with varying conditions beneath the headline number. Demand and employment strengthened, production remained elevated, inventories contracted and manufacturers reported a faster increase in input prices.

September also extended the manufacturing sector’s expansion streak to nine months, while ISM reported that the broader U.S. economy had remained in expansion for 23 consecutive months.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the U.S. manufacturing PMI in September 2026?

The U.S. Manufacturing PMI registered 54.5 in September 2026, compared with 54.6 in August. The reading marked a ninth consecutive month of manufacturing-sector expansion.

How much did the ISM Prices Index increase in September?

The Prices Index rose to 77.9 in September from 71.1 in August, an increase of 6.8 percentage points. ISM reported that raw-material prices increased for a 24th consecutive month.

What does a manufacturing PMI above 50 indicate?

A Manufacturing PMI reading above 50 generally indicates expansion in the U.S. manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 generally indicates contraction.

Did U.S. manufacturing employment increase in September 2026?

Yes. The Employment Index increased to 52.7 in September from 51.2 in August, a rise of 1.5 percentage points.

How did new orders perform in September?

The New Orders Index increased to 55.3 from 53.7 in August, remaining in expansion territory for a ninth consecutive month.

Why Gold Seizure Is an Increasing Concern at Airports and Ports of Entry to the United States

Economic Insider Staff on October 2, 2026

For many people and families, gold is more than an investment. It may be a wedding gift, a family heirloom, or savings kept in a form that is likely to increase in value. However, people who transport gold in certain places may come under scrutiny from law enforcement officials. Gold that crosses the U.S. border, whether in a suitcase, on a traveler’s body, or in a cargo shipment, may draw close attention from federal officers. In other locations, such as airports, government agents may believe that a person carrying gold has engaged in illegal activity, and they may take steps to seize their property.

As gold prices have climbed to record levels, seizures of gold bars, coins, and jewelry at airports and ports of entry have become a growing concern for many people. When U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents or officials from other federal agencies confiscate gold, the owner may lose their property permanently unless they take the right steps to defend against asset forfeiture. In many cases, gold or other assets may be seized even when the owner is never charged with a crime.

Why Gold Seizures Are Increasing

Federal officials may view the possession of gold as an indication that a person is involved in criminal activity. Gold has a high, stable value. It is easy to transport, and it can be melted down or reshaped, which can make it hard to trace. CBP has described gold as one of the top ten items smuggled globally, and agents may believe that people are using it to avoid import duties or to hide the profits of criminal organizations.

Several recent trends have led to increased asset seizures of gold:

• Rising Gold Prices: Higher prices mean that even a small amount of gold can be worth thousands of dollars.

• Money Laundering Concerns: Some people and groups who are involved in criminal activity may convert cash into gold in order to more easily move it across borders without reporting it to the government.

• Gold Courier Scams: In some cases, scammers posing as government agents have convinced people to buy gold bars and give them to couriers in order to pay fines or taxes. Law enforcement officials may believe that people carrying gold are involved in these scams.

Reasons Gold May Raise Suspicion

Failure to Declare

Travelers entering the United States must declare goods they acquired abroad, including gold bars, coins, and jewelry. Undeclared items may be seized and forfeited, and the traveler may face a penalty equal to the item’s value. Accusations that gold has been hidden, such as by sewing jewelry into clothing or packing gold bars inside other items, can lead to the seizure of gold that is discovered.

Suspected Smuggling

Some people may be accused of bringing merchandise into the country illegally or taking items out of the country in violation of federal laws. These cases may involve commercial gold imports or exports or jewelry that a person allegedly plans to resell rather than keep as personal property.

Suspected Money Laundering

Federal officers may suspect that a person is involved in money laundering when they have trouble explaining where gold came from, when they carry large amounts of gold, or when they have traveled to areas where money laundering and other criminal offenses are common.

Connection to Scams

If officers believe that a person obtained gold through a fraud scheme, they may seize these assets. A person carrying gold for someone else may be investigated, and gold may be seized even if the person was unaware of criminal activity.

How Asset Forfeiture Cases Involving Gold Are Handled

Forfeiture is a legal process that allows the government to take property connected to a crime or another violation of the law. The procedures followed in these cases may include:

• Administrative Forfeiture: An agency may take steps to seize assets without going to court. CBP may use this process to seize items valued at $500,000 or less, including in situations where property was allegedly imported into the United States illegally.

• Civil Asset Forfeiture: The government may file a lawsuit against the property itself in federal court. This will allow property to be confiscated even if the owner is not charged with a crime.

• Criminal Forfeiture: Property that is allegedly related to a crime may be seized as part of a criminal case. A conviction may result in the permanent forfeiture of any assets used to commit an offense or obtained through the proceeds of criminal activity.

Options for People Whose Gold or Jewelry Has Been Seized

After gold or other assets have been seized, the government will typically send a Notice of Seizure. A person may have multiple options for responding to this notice, contesting the seizure, and taking steps to get their property back. These options may include:

• Petition for Remission or Mitigation: A person may file a petition asking the government to return their property or reduce any penalties that may apply. This option is commonly used in cases where assets were seized because they were not properly declared.

• Offer in Compromise: A person may make an offer to the government to recover some of their assets or make a payment that will allow their property to be returned.

• Claim in Federal Court: A person can file a claim to recover their property, and their case may be reviewed by a U.S. district court, allowing them to make a case for why their property should be returned.

Ways to Strengthen a Claim for the Return of Seized Gold

A person may be more likely to be able to recover gold that has been seized when they can show proof of ownership, which may include receipts, appraisals, bank records, or photographs. They may also provide other forms of evidence explaining why they were traveling with gold. The proper information will need to be filed within the correct time periods. Deadlines in forfeiture cases are strict, and failing to act quickly could result in the permanent loss of a person’s property.

How an Attorney Can Help Recover Seized Gold

A lawyer with experience in cases involving asset forfeiture can help people understand why their property was taken and which options are available for recovering gold or other items. An attorney can also respond to seizure notices, gather evidence showing proof of ownership, and present a client’s position in court.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice or create an attorney-client relationship. Laws and procedures concerning customs enforcement, asset seizure, and civil, administrative, or criminal forfeiture can vary depending on the circumstances and may change over time. The information presented here should not be relied upon as a substitute for advice from a qualified attorney familiar with the specific facts of a case. Anyone whose property has been seized or who is facing a forfeiture proceeding should seek appropriate legal counsel and pay close attention to applicable deadlines and filing requirements.