A U.S. cost of living tracker updated by the Urban Institute on October 26, 2026, highlights research finding that 49% of people in American families fell below an economic-security benchmark in 2023. Newer energy, health care and household-finance figures show where costs are rising and how the measurements differ.
Key Takeaways
- The 49% finding is based on 2023 family resources and expenses, not a new count of households struggling in October 2026.
- Residential electricity bills rose faster than earnings in 31 states between June 2025 and June 2026, the Urban Institute reported.
- U.S. consumer prices increased 3.7% over the year through September 2026, including a 34.2% increase in gasoline prices.
- A 2026 Pew Research Center survey found that 53% of adults lacked emergency savings sufficient for three months of expenses.
Nearly half of people living in U.S. families lacked the resources required to meet the Urban Institute’s economic-security standard in 2023, according to research featured in the organization’s October 26 affordability update. The 49% estimate measures a wider range of financial needs than the official poverty rate.
It does not mean 49% of Americans were unable to buy groceries or pay their bills. Instead, it identifies people living in families whose combined resources fell below a threshold that also accounts for savings and other costs. More recent data illustrate why the difference matters, without establishing that the 2023 figure remains unchanged today.
The 49% Estimate Measures More Than Poverty
The Urban Institute published its updated true cost of economic security research on March 16, 2026, using information from 2023. The framework considers expenses such as food, transportation, health care, child care, taxes and a savings allowance. It adjusts estimated needs for local prices, family size, age and disability-related care.
Researchers then compare the threshold with available family resources, including earnings and other income, tax credits and public benefits. The measure is designed to capture whether families have enough resources to meet regular expenses while retaining some capacity to save. It is not a survey asking respondents whether they have missed a payment.
The study found that 22% of people nationwide were in families with resources between 75% and just under 100% of the benchmark. That group accounted for about 45% of those below the threshold. Another 9% of people nationwide lived in families with less than half of the estimated resources required.
Family circumstances also changed the results. Among people in families with children and no adults age 65 or older, 56% fell below the benchmark. The share was 44% for those in families without children where all adults were younger than 65. More than 40% of people in families with a full-time, year-round worker also fell short.
U.S. Cost of Living Pressures Rise Across Essential Bills
More recent numbers in the Urban Institute’s affordability tracker show uneven changes in the expenses families face. Residential electricity bills grew faster than earnings in 31 states between June 2025 and June 2026. Nationally, the tracker estimates that customers paid about $5 more each month, on average, than a year earlier.
The report also states that gasoline prices climbed 33% from January 2025, or about $1.02 per gallon on average, while nominal earnings rose 6% over the same period. Those are comparisons across a specific period, not the price change that every household experienced.
Separate Bureau of Labor Statistics figures released October 14 put annual U.S. consumer-price inflation at 3.7% in September. Gasoline prices were 34.2% higher than a year earlier, while the electricity price index rose 4.4%. Those figures use different dates and methods from the Urban comparisons, so the percentages should not be treated as interchangeable.
When pay raises and inflation move at different speeds, nominal earnings can increase even as inflation-adjusted hourly earnings decline. BLS reported a 0.7% annual decline in real hourly earnings. National averages, however, cannot capture every worker’s experience or the price changes that each household faces.
A separate October 13 analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found that households earning less than $40,000 spent a median 13.3% of pretax income on utilities in 2024. The corresponding share for high-income households was 2.5%. The calculations drew on federal consumer spending data and covered multiple utility services, not electricity alone. Among lower-income households, 22% received utility disconnection notices in 2024.
Health coverage and child care add other expenses. KFF’s national benchmark data put the monthly Silver premium for a 40-year-old at $625 in 2026, compared with $497 in 2025. Those are premiums before financial assistance, not the amount paid by every enrollee. Urban reports that employer-sponsored premiums rose 5% on average.
For families purchasing care for two young children, the tracker estimates annual child care expenses about $6,600 higher than in 2017. That comparison spans a longer period and cannot be read as a single-year increase.
Financial Strain Varies by Income, Family and Region
The Urban Institute’s 2023 economic-security estimate also differed by geography. About 54% of people in nonmetropolitan areas lived in families below the threshold, compared with 48% in metropolitan areas. By broad region, the figure ranged from 46% in the Midwest to 53% in the West.
Urban attributes larger security gaps in many locations chiefly to lower available resources rather than especially high costs alone. The same set of expenses can therefore have different effects on households with different earnings, household sizes or caregiving obligations.
Measures of paycheck-to-paycheck financial strain focus on how much income remains after essential spending. Urban’s security threshold includes an allowance for savings, making the measures related but not equivalent.
Other studies capture financial stress differently. A Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted July 20 to August 9, 2026, found that 53% lacked emergency funds covering three months of expenses. About 27% said they could not pay all monthly bills in full, and 70% reported cutting back on discretionary purchases during the previous year.
The Pew results are based on respondents’ answers, while Urban’s 49% figure comes from a model of family resources and expenses. The estimates involve different populations, periods and definitions. They should not be combined into a single count of financially insecure Americans.
The U.S. cost of living data cover different time frames and measures. Newer national price trends and surveys describe specific pressures, while the 49% estimate compares family resources with a security threshold in 2023.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the 49% economic-security estimate mean?
It means 49% of people lived in families whose resources were below the Urban Institute’s true cost of economic security threshold in 2023. It does not mean 49% of households missed bills or met the official definition of poverty.
Is the 49% figure from 2026?
No. The Urban Institute updated its affordability tracker on October 26, 2026, but the 49% estimate comes from research using 2023 data.
Which U.S. cost of living expenses increased most recently?
The tracker identified electricity bills and gasoline among expenses rising faster than earnings during specified recent periods. Health premiums also increased, but the changes depend on the type of coverage and the comparison dates.
How does economic security differ from emergency savings?
Urban’s measure compares modeled family resources with an expenses-and-savings threshold. Pew’s separate survey asked adults whether they had funds to cover three months of expenses, producing a different estimate.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. The 49% economic-security figure is based on the Urban Institute’s analysis of 2023 data and does not represent financial conditions for all Americans in 2026. Other statistics reflect different reporting periods, research methods, and populations. Findings may not reflect individual household circumstances. All information is based on publicly available research and data available at the time of publication.
