Samsung quarterly profit is projected at about $80 billion in operating earnings for the third quarter of 2026, supported by demand for AI-related memory chips. Yet Samsung shares declined after the announcement. The figures, supply constraints and reactions across U.S. chip stocks help explain why record guidance received a mixed response.
Key Takeaways
- Samsung forecast third-quarter operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, up 782.5% from a year earlier
- Samsung projected revenue of 195 trillion won, a 126.6% annual increase
- Samsung shares fell approximately 2.4% on October 8, while U.S. memory-related stocks also declined
- Samsung’s mobile and networks businesses recorded a 700 billion won operating loss in the previous quarter
- Detailed third-quarter financial results are scheduled for October 29
Samsung Electronics projected a company-record operating profit for the third quarter of 2026, yet its shares fell following the October 8 announcement. The South Korean company estimated 107.4 trillion won, or approximately $80.2 billion, in operating profit for July through September.
That figure surpassed one widely followed analyst estimate while falling below another. The difference matters because the company’s memory business is benefiting from elevated chip prices, even as higher component costs place pressure on other Samsung operations.
Samsung Quarterly Profit Estimate Surges 782.5%
Samsung’s October 8 guidance put consolidated revenue at approximately 195 trillion won for the third quarter, compared with 86.06 trillion won a year earlier. The revenue estimate represents an increase of 126.6%, while projected operating profit rose from 12.17 trillion won in the comparable 2025 period.
The forecast would extend Samsung’s run of record quarterly operating earnings to four consecutive quarters if confirmed. Reuters reported that profit exceeding 100 trillion won in a single quarter would be unprecedented for a technology company.
Samsung’s second-quarter results offer another comparison. Revenue reached 171.5 trillion won in the April-to-June period, while operating profit totaled 89.49 trillion won. The third-quarter guidance implies approximately 20% sequential growth in operating profit and a 55.1% operating margin, using the preliminary figures.
The company presented these estimates before completion of the external audit. In accordance with Korean disclosure rules, Samsung reported midpoints of its estimated ranges, placing operating profit between 107.3 trillion and 107.5 trillion won and revenue between 194 trillion and 196 trillion won.
The release did not include net profit or results for individual business divisions. As a result, the precise contribution from memory chips, smartphones and other operations remains unconfirmed until Samsung publishes detailed figures.
AI Memory Demand Lifts Earnings but Adds Device Costs
Industry reporting has attributed much of Samsung’s projected earnings increase to high memory-chip prices. Demand for AI servers has intensified competition for high-bandwidth memory, while supply constraints have also affected conventional DRAM and NAND products used for computing and storage.
High-bandwidth memory, or HBM, allows advanced processors to access data quickly and is used in AI computing systems. DRAM supports the rapid movement of active data, while NAND is used for longer-term storage in solid-state drives and other devices. Rising prices across these products can increase revenue for major memory suppliers.
Samsung said it began commercial shipments of sixth-generation HBM4 memory in February and followed with HBM4E sample shipments later in the year. Those product milestones show how the company is expanding its advanced-memory portfolio, but October’s consolidated guidance does not say how much revenue or profit came from either generation.
The pressure on supply is linked to wider AI data center expansion, which requires processors, memory modules and enterprise storage equipment. Samsung has not provided a separate figure showing how much of its projected third-quarter profit came specifically from AI-related sales.
Samsung’s July earnings report provides an earlier measure of the semiconductor business. Its Device Solutions division recorded 127.5 trillion won in second-quarter revenue and 89.2 trillion won in operating profit. The company said its memory business had achieved record quarterly revenue and operating earnings at the time.
Those semiconductor gains did not extend to all Samsung businesses. The Mobile eXperience and Networks operations reported 33.2 trillion won in second-quarter revenue but an operating loss of 700 billion won. Samsung identified higher industry-wide component costs as a factor behind the weaker profitability.
That creates a direct tension within Samsung’s business model. The higher memory prices supporting its chip operations can also raise the cost of producing smartphones. The October preliminary guidance does not establish whether the mobile business recovered during the third quarter, and comparisons with its second-quarter loss should not be treated as a new quarterly result.
Record Forecast Meets Declines in Samsung and U.S. Chip Shares
Samsung shares fell approximately 2.4% in Seoul on October 8 despite the record projection. Micron Technology and several other memory-related stocks also declined during U.S. trading, according to market reports. The movement coincided with concerns about future pricing and earnings expectations despite the substantial projected profit.
Analyst forecasts offered mixed benchmarks. Reuters reported that Samsung’s estimated operating profit slightly exceeded an LSEG SmartEstimate of 106.1 trillion won. Visible Alpha’s consensus had called for 112.73 trillion won in operating profit and 205.26 trillion won in revenue, both above Samsung’s guidance.
“The market’s focus has shifted to whether the sharp earnings growth that started a year ago would be sustainable,” Kim Seok-hwan, a market analyst at Mirae Asset Securities, told Reuters. The comment reflects the attention placed on the duration of high memory prices after a period of rapid earnings growth.
Reuters also cited TrendForce projections showing conventional DRAM contract prices rising 10% to 15% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of roughly 60% in the second quarter. Those figures describe estimates and earlier price movements, rather than a confirmed change in Samsung’s future earnings.
For U.S. semiconductor companies, the same market conditions affect revenue and costs in different ways. Micron’s position as a supplier of DRAM, NAND and HBM makes its results relevant to this comparison, while Micron’s recent earnings report documents how data-center demand has influenced its product mix.
Samsung’s financial guidance does not identify the profitability of its smartphone, display or contract chipmaking operations during the latest quarter. Samsung is scheduled to release its full third-quarter results on October 29, when a divisional breakdown should provide a clearer account of the sources of its estimated operating profit.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much profit did Samsung forecast for the third quarter?
Samsung quarterly profit was projected at 107.4 trillion won, or approximately $80.2 billion, in operating earnings for July through September 2026. The figure is preliminary and does not represent net profit.
Why are AI memory chips affecting Samsung’s results?
AI servers use high-bandwidth memory alongside conventional DRAM and storage components. Strong demand and constrained supply have supported higher memory prices, according to industry reporting.
Why did Samsung shares decline after its record forecast?
Samsung shares fell around 2.4% in Seoul on October 8. The guidance exceeded one analyst consensus but missed another, while market reporting identified concerns about whether elevated chip margins can persist.
When will Samsung release detailed third-quarter earnings?
Samsung is scheduled to release detailed results on October 29, 2026. The report is expected to include performance by business division, which the preliminary guidance did not provide.
