Delta Air Lines lowered its 2026 earnings forecast on October 9 despite record third-quarter adjusted revenue of $17.6 billion. A sharp rise in jet fuel costs narrowed margins at the Atlanta-based carrier. Its latest results show how premium travel, passenger fares, and operating expenses shaped the revised outlook.
Key Takeaways
- Full-year adjusted earnings guidance fell to $5.10 to $5.60 per share from July’s $6.50 to $7.50 range
- Adjusted third-quarter revenue increased 16% to a September-quarter record of $17.6 billion
- Adjusted fuel expenses climbed 62% to $4.1 billion as operating margin slipped to 9.4%
- Delta forecasts roughly 20% revenue growth in the fourth quarter, subject to higher fuel-cost assumptions
Delta Air Lines reduced the midpoint of its annual adjusted profit forecast by $1.65 per share, or nearly 24%, after fuel spending exceeded earlier expectations. The October 9 announcement came despite higher revenue across major passenger markets and the airline’s premium products.
“In a high-cost environment you cannot grow your way out of it,” Chief Executive Ed Bastian said during the earnings call, according to Reuters. The company’s third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.72 per share also fell short of analysts’ average estimate of $1.76, Reuters reported.
Delta Air Lines Lowers Its 2026 Profit Forecast Nearly 24%
The carrier now expects adjusted earnings of $5.10 to $5.60 per share for 2026, compared with the $6.50 to $7.50 range it reaffirmed in July. The midpoint of the new forecast is $5.35, below the $5.46 estimate compiled by LSEG and reported by Reuters.
In July, Delta had projected September-quarter adjusted earnings of $2 to $2.50 per share and an operating margin of 11% to 13%. Actual results were below both ranges. Adjusted operating income was $1.66 billion, compared with $1.69 billion a year earlier, and the adjusted operating margin fell to 9.4% from 11.1%.
The difference is also visible in standard accounting results. Delta reported $20.2 billion in third-quarter revenue under generally accepted accounting principles, but net income fell 47% to $756 million. Its separately reported $17.6 billion adjusted revenue figure excludes certain items, including third-party refinery sales.
The company also reduced its full-year free cash flow projection to approximately $2.5 billion from the previous $3 billion to $4 billion range. It said it expects to repay more than $2 billion of debt during 2026.
Jet Fuel Costs Rise 62% and Narrow Profit Margins
Delta recorded adjusted fuel expenses of $4.1 billion for the three months ended September 30, up 62% from a year earlier. Its average adjusted fuel price increased to $3.61 per gallon from $2.25. On an unadjusted basis, fuel expense rose 69% to $4.35 billion.
Chief Financial Officer Erik Snell said third-quarter fuel expenses were more than $500 million above the assumptions used in Delta’s early-July guidance. Delta now expects approximately $6 billion in additional fuel costs for 2026 compared with 2025.
The increase reflects broader transportation fuel-cost pressures affecting U.S. businesses. Airlines spent $42.9 billion on fuel in the first eight months of 2026, about $13.2 billion more than a year earlier despite slightly lower consumption, according to government figures cited by Reuters.
Fuel was not the only expense rising. Delta reported a 7.3% increase in nonfuel unit costs, citing higher crew and revenue-related spending, as well as capacity effects from summer storms. Capacity was approximately flat during the September quarter.
Delta’s refinery operation reduced its adjusted fuel price by 13 cents per gallon in the quarter. For the final three months of 2026, the airline’s forecast assumes an approximately 40-cent refinery benefit and an all-in fuel price of $4.25 per gallon, higher than its third-quarter average.
Premium Travel Growth Lifts Sales as Fourth-Quarter Costs Loom
Delta’s adjusted September-quarter revenue rose 16% year over year, even though capacity was essentially unchanged. Premium ticket revenue increased 18% as premium-seat availability rose 6%. Main Cabin unit revenue grew 17% while seats in that section declined by a low-single-digit percentage.
Domestic unit revenue rose 16%, compared with 12% growth internationally. Latin American routes posted a 22% increase in unit revenue, and transatlantic unit revenue rose 11%. Cargo revenue increased 29%, while maintenance, repair and overhaul revenue climbed 28%.
Delta also reported an 18% increase in loyalty revenue and a 15% rise in remuneration from its American Express partnership. It expects the partnership’s full-year remuneration to exceed $9 billion. In the wider U.S. airline market, American Airlines separately revised basic economy mileage benefits for certain tickets issued beginning in December 2025.
Corporate ticket sales grew by double digits across the sectors Delta tracks. The airline cited banking, technology, and energy among the areas contributing to that increase, alongside demand for premium seats.
For the fourth quarter, Delta forecasts approximately 20% revenue growth from a year earlier with seat growth below 2%, including fewer Main Cabin seats. It expects adjusted earnings of $1.15 to $1.65 per share and an operating margin of 7% to 9%.
Those projections remain dependent on fuel prices and operating costs rather than completed results. Delta Air Lines ended September with $6.9 billion in available liquidity and generated $463 million of free cash flow during the quarter, according to its financial report.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Delta Air Lines lower its 2026 profit outlook?
Delta Air Lines cited higher jet fuel expenses, which exceeded the assumptions used in its July forecast. Its adjusted fuel spending rose 62% year over year in the third quarter.
How much revenue did Delta report in the third quarter?
Delta reported $17.6 billion in adjusted operating revenue, a September-quarter record and a 16% increase from a year earlier. Revenue under standard accounting rules was $20.2 billion.
How did higher costs affect Delta’s profit margin?
The airline’s adjusted operating margin declined to 9.4% from 11.1% a year earlier. Adjusted operating profit edged lower despite revenue growth.
What is Delta forecasting for the fourth quarter of 2026?
Delta projects approximately 20% revenue growth and adjusted earnings of $1.15 to $1.65 per share. Its outlook assumes an all-in fuel price of about $4.25 per gallon.
