Many would-be buyers are sitting out the market, waiting for mortgage rates to fall. One industry veteran argues that waiting often costs more than it saves.
The Rates Buyers Remember Are Not Coming Back Soon
With the 30-year fixed rate climbing above 7.5 percent in 2026, buyers who remember pandemic-era rates below 3 percent have been reluctant to commit. Bill Gaul, CEO of Builders Update and chair of the RESO Data Dictionary New Construction Subcommittee, thinks that wait could be a long one. He expects rates to stay elevated and believes a figure closer to 8 percent could become the norm for years to come. “The days of 3 percent are long gone,” Gaul says.
The Math of Waiting
The problem with waiting, Gaul argues, is that the savings from a slightly lower rate can be erased by a higher purchase price. As buyers return to the market when rates ease, renewed competition tends to push prices up.
By his estimate, someone who waits can watch the same home rise by thousands of dollars, offsetting the benefit of the lower rate. A buyer ends up paying one way or another, he says, just on a different line of the contract.
Buy What You Need, Not What You Want
Gaul’s guidance is to focus on affordability rather than timing. He encourages buyers to separate what they need from what they want, and to buy a home they can comfortably afford today rather than stretching on the assumption that they will refinance later. “Buy the house you can afford, live in it, and enjoy it,” he says.
He also urges caution on incentives. A builder’s rate buydown can make a monthly payment look manageable, but many buydowns are temporary and still require the buyer to qualify at the full rate, so a cost that feels comfortable at first can rise later. Reading those terms closely, Gaul says, is part of buying within your means rather than beyond them.
None of this is a prediction that rates will never fall. It is an argument that timing the market is harder, and often costlier, than buying what you can afford when you are ready. For buyers weighing whether to wait, Gaul’s message is that the cost of sitting out is easy to underestimate.
About the Expert: Bill Gaul is CEO of Builders Update and chair of the RESO Data Dictionary New Construction Subcommittee. Based in Austin, Texas, he specializes in new construction data and MLS interoperability.
About Builders Update: Builders Update is one of North America’s leading providers of new construction inventory data, serving builders, MLSs, brokers, and real estate professionals. Through its platform and commitment to data quality, Builders Update advances transparency, interoperability, and collaboration within the new construction sector. For more information, visit www.buildersupdate.com.
Disclaimer: This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.
